How to Calculate the ROI of AI Adoption (With Real Numbers)

"What's the ROI on AI training?" It's the first question every CFO asks, and most training providers dodge it with vague promises. Let me give you a concrete framework instead.

The Basic Formula

ROI on AI training boils down to:

(Hours Saved × Hourly Value × Adoption Rate) - Training Cost = Net Value

Let's break down each component with realistic numbers.

Step 1: Identify Target Workflows

Start by listing 3-5 workflows where AI can make a measurable difference. Be specific:

• Data room review (PE)
• Contract comparison (Legal)
• Lease abstraction (CRE)
• RFP response drafting (Construction)
• Prospect research (Sales)

For each workflow, estimate current time and post-AI time. Be conservative, assume 50-70% time reduction, not 90%.

Step 2: Calculate Hours Saved

For each workflow:

• Current time per occurrence
• Post-AI time per occurrence
• Frequency per year
• Number of employees doing this work

Example: PE Data Room Review

Step 3: Assign Hourly Value

Use fully-loaded cost, not salary. Fully-loaded includes benefits, overhead, office space, and management time. Rule of thumb: multiply salary by 1.4-1.6.

For most professional services:

• Junior staff: $50-75/hour fully loaded
• Mid-level: $75-125/hour fully loaded
• Senior: $125-200/hour fully loaded

Alternatively, if you bill for time, use a discounted billing rate (perhaps 50-70% of client rate to be conservative).

Step 4: Apply Adoption Rate

This is where most ROI calculations go wrong, they assume 100% adoption. Reality is different:

• Generic online training: 5-15% adoption
• One-time workshop (no follow-up): 20-35% adoption
• Custom training with follow-up: 50-70% adoption
• Full implementation program: 65-85% adoption

Also account for ramp time. Month 1 might be 30% of potential savings; Month 6 might be 80%.

Step 5: Full Calculation Example

Scenario: 10-person PE deal team

What This Doesn't Capture

The calculation above is conservative because it ignores several real benefits:

• Capacity expansion: Reviewing more deals without adding headcount
• Quality improvements: Catching issues that manual review might miss
• Employee satisfaction: Less burnout, better retention
• Speed advantages: Faster turnaround wins competitive situations
• Compound effects: Year 2+ adoption is higher with lower marginal cost

Making the Case to Leadership

When presenting to a CFO or managing partner:

1. Use conservative assumptions. Better to exceed expectations than fall short.
2. Show the sensitivity analysis. What if adoption is only 40%? What if time savings are only 40% instead of 60%? Even pessimistic scenarios often show positive ROI.
3. Include the risk of inaction. Competitors are adopting AI. What's the cost of falling behind?
4. Start with a pilot. Propose a limited scope engagement that proves the concept before full rollout.

The Bottom Line

For most knowledge-work teams. AI training ROI is 3-10x within the first year. The math works. The question isn't whether to invest in AI adoption, it's how to do it effectively.